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Quote: people, even when trained, tend to overestimate compound probabilities; polynomial in choices per stage, exponential in stages
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Topic:
probability assessment
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The experiment was designed to test the hypothesis … that people tend to overestimate compound probabilities. … There was one correct but unknown alternative at … [of the array] … turn, only one guess being allowed at each … [The inertial-\psi effect] is such that if the number of … at all stages varies directly with a power … the relative overestimation varies exponentially with the number … [p. 46] In view of the fact [not discussed] that highly intelligent people, even those with some training in … from being 'primitive' or intuitive. Google-1 Google-2
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Topic: probability assessment (26 items)