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Quote: in judging probabilities, people ignore sample size since no effect on similarity; yet has a major effect on probability
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probability assessment
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A second factor that has a major effect … sample. … [p. 151] Most subjects judged the probability of obtaining … large hospital [even though the small hospital has a much greater chance of a skewed distribution]. [A sample of 4:1 red vs. black is considered stronger evidence for 2/3's red than a sample of 12:8, even though the later is twice as good.] [Kahneman and Tversky, Cognitive Psychol. 3:430, 1972]. Google-1 Google-2
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Topic: probability assessment (26 items)