149 ;;Quote: to answer probabilistic questions, people typically look for similarities between choices and ignore prior probabilities

150 ;;Quote: in judging probabilities, people ignore sample size since no effect on similarity; yet has a major effect on probability

150 ;;Quote: people expect than random properties hold in small samples, e.g., HTHTTH vs. HHHHTH or gambler's fallacy

151 ;;Quote: experienced research psychologists tend to view small samples as highly representative of populations; leads to overgeneralization

152 ;;Quote: people estimate probability by the ease of recalling instances; e.g., 'r' as 1st vs. 3rd letter, or pairs in 10 elements vs. 8's

153 ;;Quote: people estimate risk by ease of imagining problems; may underestimate if miss possible dangers

153 ;;Quote: anchoring: people estimate unknown value by insufficient adjustment from some initial value; e.g., 8x7x6... vs. 1x2x3...

154 ;;Quote: people overestimate conjunctive events and underestimate disjunctive ones; explain by anchoring

155 ;;Quote: undue optimism about success and scheduling because everything must succeed (conjunction anchoring)

155 ;;Quote: undue optimism about risks because any event can fail (disjunctive anchoring)

155 ;;Quote: subjective probability distributions are overly narrow, due to anchoring; better if don't use best estimate

157 ;;Quote: similarity, ease of recall, and starting values are good heuristics for subjective probabilities, but people miss sample size and prior probability

157+;;Quote: people fail to learn about the effects of sample size and prior probability because most events are not evaluated statistically