QuoteRef: tverA2_1974

topics > all references > ThesaHelp: references t-z

references t-z
probability assessment
contingency and strategic planning


Tversky, A., "Assessing uncertainty", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Methodology, 36, 2, pp. 148-159, 1974. Google

Other Reference

Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D., "Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases," Science 185:1124-1131, September 27, 1974 [QuoteRef: tverA9_1974]

149 ;;Quote: to answer probabilistic questions, people typically look for similarities between choices and ignore prior probabilities
150 ;;Quote: in judging probabilities, people ignore sample size since no effect on similarity; yet has a major effect on probability
150 ;;Quote: people expect than random properties hold in small samples, e.g., HTHTTH vs. HHHHTH or gambler's fallacy
151 ;;Quote: experienced research psychologists tend to view small samples as highly representative of populations; leads to overgeneralization
152 ;;Quote: people estimate probability by the ease of recalling instances; e.g., 'r' as 1st vs. 3rd letter, or pairs in 10 elements vs. 8's
153 ;;Quote: people estimate risk by ease of imagining problems; may underestimate if miss possible dangers
153 ;;Quote: anchoring: people estimate unknown value by insufficient adjustment from some initial value; e.g., 8x7x6... vs. 1x2x3...
154 ;;Quote: people overestimate conjunctive events and underestimate disjunctive ones; explain by anchoring
155 ;;Quote: undue optimism about success and scheduling because everything must succeed (conjunction anchoring)
155 ;;Quote: undue optimism about risks because any event can fail (disjunctive anchoring)
155 ;;Quote: subjective probability distributions are overly narrow, due to anchoring; better if don't use best estimate
157 ;;Quote: similarity, ease of recall, and starting values are good heuristics for subjective probabilities, but people miss sample size and prior probability
157+;;Quote: people fail to learn about the effects of sample size and prior probability because most events are not evaluated statistically

Related Topics up

ThesaHelp: references t-z (309 items)
Topic: probability (21 items)
Topic: probability assessment (26 items)
Topic: contingency and strategic planning (22 items)

Collected barberCB 11/93
Copyright © 2002-2008 by C. Bradford Barber. All rights reserved.
Thesa is a trademark of C. Bradford Barber.