Quote: subjective probability distributions are overly narrow, due to anchoring; better if don't use best estimate

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[Subjective probability] distributions serve to summarize one's knowledge or … particular day. A subjective probability distribution is usually … of his subjective probability distribution. … [p. 155] Several investigators (e.g., Winkler, 1967; Alpert and … of judges. These distributions indicated large and systematic … smaller than [the 1st percentile] or greater than [the 99th percentile] for about 30 per cent of the problems [correct is 2 percent]. That is, the subjects state overly narrow confidence intervals which … This effect is readily interpreted as an instance … [since judges adjust their 50% guess up and down]. … In support of this interpretation it can be … best estimate does not serve as an anchor. …   Google-1   Google-2

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Topic: probability assessment (26 items)