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Quote: similarity, ease of recall, and starting values are good heuristics for subjective probabilities, but people miss sample size and prior probability
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Topic:
probability assessment
Quotation Skeleton
Although these heuristics [for subjective probabilities] sometimes lead to biases, … What is perhaps surprising is the failure of … probability or the effect of sample size on … The failure to develop valid statistical intuition is … conducive to the learning of statistical rules. Although … in text) we rarely compare the statistical properties … People just do not think about texts in … Google-1 Google-2
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Additional Titles
Quote: people fail to learn about the effects of sample size and prior probability because most events are not evaluated statistically
Topic: probability assessment (26 items)