Quote: people estimate probability by the ease of recalling instances; e.g., 'r' as 1st vs. 3rd letter, or pairs in 10 elements vs. 8's

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Life-long experience has taught us that instances of … occurrences are easier to imagine than unlikely ones. … by the ease with which instances of occurrences … [For example,] Is it more likely that [a random] word starts with r, or that r is its third … Because it is much easier to search for … a given consonant to be more numerous than … consonants (e.g. r or k) that are actually … [Also, subjects estimate far more pairs in 10 elements than groups of eight out of 10 (70 vs. 20, correct is 45 for both)].   Google-1   Google-2

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Topic: probability assessment (26 items)