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QuoteRef: tverA9_1974
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probability assessment
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probability
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randomness
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memory
Reference
Tversky, A., Kahneman, D., "Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases", Science, 185, pp. 1124-1131 , September 27, 1974. Google
Other Reference
reprinted in Kahneman, D., Slovi and Tversky, A. (eds), Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 1982.
1124 ;;Quote: people use a limited number of heuristic principles to assess probabilities and predict values
1124 ;;Quote: people typically assess membership probability by the representativeness heuristic; i.e., is object A representative of class B
1124 ;;Quote: people ignore prior probability when using representativeness to assess membership probability
1125 ;;Quote: chance is commonly viewed as a self-correcting process. In fact, deviations are merely diluted
1126 ;;Quote: people predict on the basis of a description even though a prediction is unjustified; e.g., 5 year predictions on inadequate evidence
1126 ;;Quote: deviation towards the mean: consider variables X and Y with the same distribution; the extremes of X will be less extreme in Y
1127 ;;Quote: availability heuristic: people judge probability by the ease of recalling instances or events; can lead to errors
ThesaHelp: references t-z (309 items)
Topic: probability assessment (26 items)
Topic: probability (21 items)
Topic: randomness (20 items)
Topic: memory (12 items)