Tversky, A., Kahneman, D.,
"Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases",
Science, 185, pp. 1124-1131 , September 27, 1974.
reprinted in Kahneman, D., Slovi and Tversky, A. (eds), Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 1982.
|1124 ;;Quote: people use a limited number of heuristic principles to assess probabilities and predict values|
|1124 ;;Quote: people typically assess membership probability by the representativeness heuristic; i.e., is object A representative of class B|
|1124 ;;Quote: people ignore prior probability when using representativeness to assess membership probability|
|1125 ;;Quote: chance is commonly viewed as a self-correcting process. In fact, deviations are merely diluted|
|1126 ;;Quote: people predict on the basis of a description even though a prediction is unjustified; e.g., 5 year predictions on inadequate evidence|
|1126 ;;Quote: deviation towards the mean: consider variables X and Y with the same distribution; the extremes of X will be less extreme in Y |
|1127 ;;Quote: availability heuristic: people judge probability by the ease of recalling instances or events; can lead to errors
ThesaHelp: references t-z (309 items)
Topic: probability assessment (26 items)
Topic: probability (21 items)
Topic: randomness (20 items)
Topic: memory (12 items)