Quote: people ignore prior probability when using representativeness to assess membership probability

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Insensitivity to prior probabilities of outcomes. One of … is the prior probability, or base-rate frequency, of … [In an experiment, subjects assessed the probability that neutral descriptions belonged to an engineer or lawyer under conditions of different population ratios.] … In a sharp violation of Bayes' rule, the … [p. 1125] In the absence of a personality sketch, … respectively, in the two base-rate conditions. [Psychol. Bull. 80:237, 1973]   Google-1   Google-2

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Topic: probability assessment (26 items)