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Quote: people predict on the basis of a description even though a prediction is unjustified; e.g., 5 year predictions on inadequate evidence
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Topic:
probability assessment
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Insensitivity to predictability. … if people predict solely in terms of the … to the expected accuracy of the prediction. [For example, subjects gave the same evaluation of student teacher's performance as their 5 year prediction of future performance, Psychol. Bull. 80:237, 1973] Google-1 Google-2
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Topic: probability assessment (26 items)